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Web Exclusive | March 2016

8% rise likely in global cotton output in 2016-17

Cotton Outlook continues to forecast raw cotton production in 2016/17 at 22,748,000 tonnes, representing an increase of eight percent on the previous period. Cotton area is expected to increase modestly and a repeat of the current season’s reduction to yields is not foreseen. Global consumption is also unchanged, at 23,317,000, just 1.4 percent higher than in 2015/16. Growth is anticipated in the Indian subcontinent and Vietnam. The resultant change to world stock levels is a contraction of 569,000 tonnes, with the biggest fall occurring in China. Stocks outside that country are expected to increase, as per Cotlook data.

Meanwhile, Data published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that cotton imports in February reached 66,978 tonnes, up 2.28 per cent on the prior month. The figure surged 281.85 per cent on an annual basis, following a staggering y-o-y growth of 435.12 per cent in January. Trading value soared 204.27 per cent, to US$98 million. The phenomenal expansion of cotton imports was due to the serious damage from pests and floods to the crops of the 2015/16 season. And the output of the 2016/17 season is expected to fall substantially, too, according to the recent estimate of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). Local analysts predicted that imports could continue to rise during the next couple of months, as the cotton supply, especially quality lint, was still tight on the markets. In addition, total imports between January and February jumped by 344.84 per cent, compared with the same period of a year earlier, to 132,459 tonnes. And India has been the main supplier to Pakistan cotton yarn mills since the second half of last year.

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