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Web Exclusive | January 2019

Global cotton consumption pruned

Due to uncertainties in the world economy and trading market, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) Secretariat has revised its global consumption forecast for 2018/19 downward to 27.5 million tonnes.

Global production is also expected to decrease in 2018/19, from 27 million tonnes to 26.3 million tonnes, and although Brazil and West Africa are expected to see upticks in planted area, they are unlikely to be significant enough to offset losses in Australia, China, India and the United States.

The decline in global ending stocks continues as well, finishing the 2017/18 season at 18.9 million tonne — down 22 per cent from 2014/15’s record-high of 23 million tonne. The trend is expected to continue next year, with the projected 6 per cent decrease further eroding stocks to 17.7 million tonne, the lowest number seen since 2011-12.

With a confidence interval of 95 per cent, the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has set its 2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 89 cents in December 2018.
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