WTO economists see light at the end of the tunnel after the last year's sharpest decline in trade since World War II. Now they are firm that the global trade will expand by 9.5%. Exports from developed economies are likely to rise by 7.5% in volume terms over the course of the year while shipments from the rest of the world (including developing economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States) should go up by 11% as the world shakes off the recession blues. But the recovery will be only partial and one should not expect a miracle of wiping out the 12.2% contraction in the volume of global trade that was precipitated by the 2009 crisis. The economies have to wait for one year more and ride over the fluctuations in fortunes to attain the 2008 peak level. Ecnomists are happy over the absence of any marked rise in trade barriers. In fact, the number of trade-limiting steps applied by the governments in most of the countries have fallen in the recent months. Despite this what worries many is the presistent unemployment gripping some economies, giving rise to fears of more protectionist measures at a time pregnant with renewed hopes.

World trade volumes fell on three other occasions after 1965 (—0.2% in 2001, —2% in 1982, and —7% in 1975), but none of these episodes measure in magnitude to last year’s economic debacle. During these difficult times, the multilateral trading system once again asserted itself. World trade and output are currently in a recovery phase. A 9.5% growth rate for trade is insufficient to bring about a return to pre-crisis levels this year, and even the 11% rate forecast for developing countries will not make a mark. However, two years of growth at this pace may result in trade levels surpassing the peaks of 2008. Developed economies, on the other hand, will require three years of growth to accomplish this.